2004: A Year of Portentous Change
Categories: Medical DictionaryByline: REPORTED BY SANDRA YIN AND LOUISE WITT
If 2004 were to have a personality, it would be a drama queen. We may not know exactly what the year has in store for us, but if nothing else, we know that it won’t be boring. The war in Iraq slogs on. The presidential campaign kicks off in earnest. The Summer Olympics return to Greece. The Internet grows up with legit music downloads. Biotech drugs let Americans recapture their youthful vigor. Men and woman experiment with sexual taboos, although a growing segment of our society longs for a return to traditional values. College students, unlike their Gen-X predecessors, are now more conservative.
America is more entangled with the rest of the world than at any other time in history. We buy clothes from China, cars from Japan, fruits from South America and luxury goods from Europe. When we call for tech support, the person at the other end of the line may not be in Indiana, but in India. Yet, more Americans are homebodies. We’re more likely to remodel our kitchens than book a trip to see the pyramids in Egypt. We’re more likely to eat take-out than splurge on a three-course meal. And if we do go out, we want to eat casual, inexpensive food. Blame the lackluster economy or 9/11 - or both.
As we deal with scary new diseases, such as SARS, we’re using information from the human genome to create drugs to tackle illnesses that have plagued us for generations. Biotech firm, Genentech Inc., for example, plans to market Raptiva to treat psoriasis. For years, people afflicted with the itchy skin condition used stinky coal tar derivatives to alleviate their symptoms. Other drugs that are based on knowledge of our DNA will also be available this year.
President George W. Bush passed substantial tax cuts, letting Americans pay less to Uncle Sam. Still, many feel financially strapped. States and local governments increased taxes and fees to close their budget gaps; the employment rate is still below its highs of the late ’90s, and many workers who have jobs find that they make less than they did before. To make money go further, Americans shun upscale stores in favor of discount centers, such as dollar stores, and mass merchandisers. But many people will still splurge on flat-screen TVs.
The twelve months ahead promise great accomplishments, historic events, as well as shattered expectations. If anything, 2004 will be memorable for the even greater changes it will set in motion. - LOUISE WITT
Marian Burros
Food writer, The New York Times
We’re still in the comfort food phase. Restaurants are offering down-home type of foods. Barbecue is really big in New York. Pearson’s Texas Barbecue is jammed. Retro restaurants, like Brennan’s a new old-fashioned steakhouse in New York, are also popular. Ordering small plates of food, like tapas, is growing in popularity. This started in San Francisco and now it’s on both coasts. Zaytinya is the hottest restaurant in Washington, D.C. You can have some bites, have a drink and order more plates. It’s casual and inexpensive. Those are two things people are interested in these days. People are also eating at home more than they used to, because fewer women are working. Maybe they’re ordering in, or buying carry out, but they’re eating at home.
Grant Clauser
Editor-in-chief, Dealerscope, a consumer electronics magazine Philadelphia
MP3 sales will be strong with more iPod wannabes. In 2004, there will be 10 or so. Napster’s relaunch, as a legitimate pay file service, will increase their penetration. We’ll see more flat-panel TVs. Prices are coming down and more non-Japanese manufacturers offer them. Hard drive-based video recording, like TiVo and Replay, will increase. TiVo is in the public language like Xerox. You hear, “I’ll TiVo that show.” DVD recorder sales will strengthen. Entry-level prices will be under $300. In a year or two, they will be standard on most DVD players. There’ll be more Wi-Fi networks connecting computers to home entertainment centers and to stereos.
Irma Zandl
President, The Zandl Group, a trends analysis firm, New York
With the growth of the Hispanic population (especially Mexican American) and with hip-hop now over 20 years old, a fresh street/urban culture is emerging: cholo culture. Its gang/East L.A. roots give it a gritty authenticity and unique style. Look for it to influence design especially with the Old English lettering, Pendleton shirts and khakis, bandanas, low-rider bikes and cars. Also, look for more entertainment, especially music, to cross over from that culture.
Madelyn Hochstein
President and cofounder, DYG, Inc., a market research firm Danbury, Conn.
Consumers are trying to change their lives by finding more meaning and living a valuable life. They will try to create change, fix things that are wrong, build a legacy and make every moment count. But there’s a roadblock. They can’t get where they want to go, because of security and economic risks. A lot of next year is going to be about sorting out whom we can trust. On the consumer front, we see them trying to take control in the marketplace. They’re demanding more quality, becoming more information-oriented and exploring things about brands that they may not have looked as closely at before. At the same time that we are building our fortress to protect ourselves, we need a furlough. Americans need escapes. Look for “what the hell” behavior and spending no matter what the economic outlook.